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to create a good structured portfolio, then you can make your bets. but this is a whole conversation on how to invest. >> here's a question just about bets. you know, you're making the argument, and explaining the need to have a diversified portfolio. but most people have diversified portfolio follow the market. meaning, whatever the s&p 500 is ultimately you're going to be up or down, somewhere around there. you, and some of your peers consistently outperform the market. and you do that, i assume, by making bets. >> we break it into two parts. we have two basic portfolios. there is the strategic asset allocation mix. which we call all weather and that just hassing to to do with bets. it has to do with how to make all the assets the same risk parity. call risk parity. the problem is, when people try to diversify, and they own equities and equities has a volatility. >> right. >> that's large. or they own assets that do well when the economy does well and doly when the economy does badly they have a concentration of their risk in some assets. >> right. >> they need to have. they need to chang
viewer, right? >> it's a little more complicated, but so much money has been lost betting interest rates, traditional methods of shorting bond futures, shorting rates, that it makes sense to look at small strategy ta gives you a lot of staying power. >> wa about converts or junk? >> yeah, high yield. >> interesting with interest rates going up, doesn't necessarily mean junk yields would go up. you would think if interest rates are going up, ultimately, it's been corroborate with a strong economy which tends to be a good environment for higher yield debt as the stronger economy would still translate to lower defaults and better credit in general. so i wouldn't say that betting on higher corporate yields, particularly higher junk or high yield rates is the best way to bet on interest rates. >> what could we look for for a total return for the next couple of years if we did everything right? >> on the upon side? >> yeah. >> you're still probably looking for total returns in the mid single digits, which would include a coupon that you're getting. >> you think equities could be okay, though?
, they're still looking around. >> hopefully when building a plane like that, as new as it is, i bet you could find data and concern about -- look at what's happening in the fusel e fuselage. wow, look -- i bet you find, you know, microanalyzing the whole plane. you can find things that look like concern that would just be the normal thing. >> flying the plane for millions of test miles already. >> knowing there is more to it -- is that what you think? >> have they been grounded at this point? it's not the normal bugs. >> still, if you did it on percentage basis, it's within six sigma guidelines how often it's happened. there's been a lot of flights, hours logged. and it's been -- did sno-- >> no, with the number of hours logged, you would think you would find the issues. >> they did, and i think there was some -- you know, now there's whistleblowers, too. i saw the guy. he looked like a freak. he had a ponytail -- >> every whistle blower is a freak of some sort. >> and you never know -- >> and that's why they're whistle blowers. so -- >> well -- again, we'll talk to people. but i read
of track. ending net investment, i didn't hear that. i bet it was around 4.20. they were over 600 back in 2007 or '8. so this is a really good number, joe. a little surprising after the december 17th analyst meeting, which was, you know, they brought expectations down a little bit. >> yeah. mark. that's what i was talking about. that is where jeff was talking about the fiscal cliff, wasn't he? >> yeah, yeah, he was. and, you know, expectations since the last time you and i were sitting here have gone from 47 cents to 43. so they beat at 44. but still three cents below what the street was looking for 90 days ago. >> i'm trying to remember, you know, it's molded together. when was the last dividend hike? >> third quarter of last year, joe. >> third quarter? >> yeah. >> of 2012. >> yeah. >> okay. so they usually do it in the third quarter. so we're not looking for another hike. it's yielding about 3.6%. and it is indicated up a little bit today. so as far as the outlook, what are we looking for for the company to say about the rest of the year? >> you know, i think the outlook has improve
, becky, ladbrokes, the betting site, is taking bets on whether a snowball hits angela merkel while she's here in davos. that's an 8-1 bet right now. also if you could see a joint sledding session between david cameron and george osborn, that's 100-1. and finally, 33-1, not a bad chance, that the prime minister cameron is spotted with bono. that may not happen, since bono has not arrived yet. we'll see about that. in the meantime, back to you. we'll come back to you at 8:00 with lloyd blankfein. >> you got hit by some snow last year, too. remember at the end? >> by the way the chances of that are probably better. i don't know, maybe ladbrokes could take bets on that one. i'm looking at the production guys, and i'm sure there's going to be something coming. >> like the gatorade, the victory at the end. >> if you consider that victory. >> we'll see you in just a little bit. by the way, folks at home, if you have comments or questions about anything we're talking about e-mail us at or follow us on twitter. can the bulls remain in control and is january an indicator for the
're prepared to excute the lever. >> they're hedging their bets. >> they're hedging their bets and giving broad guidance. >> inventory reductions and production levels will continue to decline at least for 2013. you look at the backlog, $19.6 billion at the end of the fourth quarter versus $23 billion at the end of the third quarter. so from 23 down to 19.6. so there's -- what you're seeing here is that cat pymer doesn't have as much visibility as a lot of other companies. and it's dependent on what we don't know. >> and that's important because for us to get that pickup in job growth in the u.s., that we need to see the fed start to move towards exiting qe we need to have companies a lot more confident than things you can drive a truck through. even at caterpillar. >> if you look at the long-term, it's as high as 117 or so, and then it traded as low as down in the mid 60s back in 2011. kind of in the middle of a recent range. just a one-year chart that you're looking at there. sort of almost a wait and see picture on the chart. >> we're waiting to see if jobs can get momentum. waiting to see i
. for folks in new york city, wouldn't bet on big snowstorms any time soon. >> haven't had snow yet. >> no. >> we had -- >> two weeks ago we had quite a bit of snow. >> i was down, didn't happen -- >> quite a bit for us. >>> we're focusing on financials this morning. gerard cassidy covers the sector for rbc capital markets. we have earnings coming up later this week. then we move to more serious earnings later next week. let's talk about the banks now, gerard. you are -- you're positive, bullish on the sector broadly -- >> yes. yes, andrew. we are still bullish on them. we were bullish last year. we continue to be bullish due to the continuing improvement in earnings coming from credit improvement and also loan growth. >> now, you like the whole industry? i mean, would you buy the index and call it a day and be happy? >> yes. we still would buy the index because when you look at the valuations of the banks, the valuations are still attractive when you look at them from a price-to-book basis. they trade slightly above book. we think in the future they'll trade at about 1.5 times book value.
the long-term. >> you bet. but at least it takes people out. i mean, you know, i guess if you don't know that washington is completely dysfunctional by now, then we're not doing a good enough job of getting the message out. i'm just saying that there's a lot of misinformation, as you know, about the debt and what the debt needs and how the united states finances itself. and there are other alternatives in playing gimmicks with coins or taking the real attention away from what needs to be done. there's a lot of debt. there's going to be debt. and you have to really draw the line between what is the budget deficit and what is the large amount of debt in the system. people like to leave off what is on the other side of the balance sheet. those are all the great as etss that go against those liabilities. >> i don't know about washington being dysfunctional. if in two years the country wants to elect, you know, a completely democratic house that will agree with everything that the obama administration wants, then we'll do that and we'll electric more democratic senators, the democrats can con
and betting that the shares will go higher. and then what do we know about icahn? >> the new york post is is reporting that call icahn has also gone long. >> also gone long. we're going to have the president, dez walsh, herbalife president. >> not president obama. >> will be on at 7:30. i don't think president obama has weighed in on herbalife. yet. >> but he is weighing in on who's going to be the next treasury secretary and he plans to nominate jack lew to succeed him -- to succeed him? to succeed tim geithner as treasury secretary, elevating the white house chief of staff into the administration's top economic post. cnbc's steve liesman now joins us with a look at exactly what lew will be left with once geithner leaves. steve? >> andrew, thanks. the treasury secretary job in this post-financial crisis world, has expanded. let's take a look at all the areas where -- the treasury secretary jack lew will now have to face including the old ones and the new ones. the first obviously coming up the debt ceiling and more. the things he has to figure out is he's got to negotiate a sequester
you. >> you bet. >>> we've got another piece of news. there was another piece of legislation discussed in the house last night. but unlike the fiscal cliff, there was no vote on this. despite pleas for bipartisan support for this -- from a bipartisan group, the session was adjourned, and the current term of congress will end without having a vote on superstorm sandy aid. that was something that people were looking for. >> this is absolutely indefensible. the fact is every bit of documentation that was required by the leadership of the house was provided by governor cuomo, governor christie, merritt blob, everybody played -- mayor bloomberg, everybody played by the rules except tonight. indefensible. we have a moral obligation. the people are out of their homes, the people who are cold, the people without food, the people who have lost their jobs, they don't have the time to wait. we cannot just walk away from our responsibilities. >> and the senate had passed a $60.4 billion sandy disaster aid bill last week. the current session comes to an end today after the new congress gets sworn i
of 3.1. i bet nobody out there knows the u.s. economy is now growing faster than average. that's why the stock market is up. i mean i think it's that simple. i think we get bogged down in what's going on in washington. and as jim said we take a very short-term view, what's going to happen in the next, you know, three months, two months. and we forget to look at what's actually happening in the economy. the economy is not strong in an absolute sense. but it continues to improve. that's why the stock market is up. and there's very little to say right now that that's going to change. >> it's going down isn't it, this next quarter? >> it's distracting 2%. >> i'm just saying that point alone, you think about industrial production is now up in like 28 of 32 industries in the united states. things like that. i don't think people -- >> it's well below, though, and the 3.1 was an outlier, wasn't it? >> it was. >> the people that say new normal -- >> look at what you're saying. i give you a good number you come back to me with a negative side of it. my point is that's how people are trained ri
. that arbitrage is as high as it's ever been. that's advantage dow, and we're betting against that advantage by putting $4 billion into texas and louisiana to build against that arbitrage sustaining itself. >> where -- are you hiring, andrew, in the united states? we've got a jobs report out tomorrow and you mentioned that politics has slowed down the hiring for a lot of ceos. >> well, what we're doing is to manage our way through these rocky waters, more than ever we're portfolio managing so we're putting money where there is growth and good returns on capital, like plastics, like the hydro carbons point we just made, like agro sciences. they're we're hiring. on the businesses underperforming, we've gone through productivity and announced job reductions. so net-net we're neutral i'd say, becky, but we are hiring where we're growing in the emerging world. definitely hiring there. but in the united states, net-net zero i'd say. >> andrew, thank you for joining us today. >> thank you for being with us, becky. >> okay. coming up next, we're going to be welcoming guest host bob nra deli the form
for two hours. we appreciate your time. >> you bet. >>> coming up, goldman sachs earnings much higher than the street expected. >>> coming up, covering for barclays. >>> and netflix gets you unlimited access to magazines on your tablet. you don't have to subscribe to each magazine. one subscription. we'll talk to the ceo at the bottom of the hour. to be the world's best sport sedan... ♪ ...people noticed. ♪ the all-new cadillac ats -- 2013 north american car of the year. ♪ for a limited time, take advantage of this exceptional offer on the all-new cadillac ats. [ male announcer ] when you wear dentures you may not know it, but your mouth is under attack. food particles infiltrate and bacteria proliferate. ♪ protect your mouth, with fixodent. the adhesive helps create a food seal defense for a clean mouth and kills bacteria for fresh breath. ♪ fixodent, and forget it. >>> goldman sachs report iing fourth quarter earnings much higher than expected. wow, it was a really big beat. we have an earnings guru here. he asks the question, why isn't the stock even higher this morning? roger
. >> andrew, what's the temperature there? >> i bet it's warmer than here. >> yeah. >> what is the temperature sneer about 25 degrees. >> cold. >> it's cold, everybody. >> it's 10 degrees here. >> i know, it's colder in new york. >> president obama made his entire speech about global warming, and the next day it was 10 degrees. anyway, that's neither here nor there. you go ahead. >> good news is it is warmer inside than it is outside. >> it's exactly -- exactly 23 degrees here, by the way. >> that's a heat wave. >> a quick lay of the land of what's going on here. 2,-600 politicians, business people, media all over the world coming here, converging here. today's just the beginning. by the way, we have a big show today lined up. but also throughout the week. you'll be seeing lord blankfine on "squawk," ray dalio, your good friend, sean parker, coming here. we'll have a party. we can talk about that. he just had a child, by the way. we have a lot to do in davos. there's already news being made this morning, and that's coming from an old "squawk" friend, jamie dimon, who was on a panel this mornin
to bet the ranch and just, you know, throw everything in. >> what we were talking about, it does leave more for the new guy to bring back in later, doesn't it? >> especially if everybody else -- >> another 800 he could bring back in when it -- wow, look at my quarter this quarter. i mean, it does. >> the question is whether investors ultimately see through this idea of people bringing money on and off. >> right. >> it's a finite amount of money. eventually you get to the end of it and have to provide real earnings. >> everything that's happened at citi, it's been moving between two and four because they did the reverse split. so it's not that interesting. it's still $4. never going back to where the prince was margining it up. >> do you feel bad for the prince, joe? >> some of his investments i feel, he made anything with a big name, planet hollywood he made so many weird investments almost like a foreigner looks at the united states. >> you think of the prince and i think of chuck prince. >> i'm talking about -- but it was confusing with citigroup. all right let's talk international m
'll bet you. >> absolutely. i totally agree, joe. and i think that's why the fed is, again, $85 billion a month is kind of the pace they need to keep up, giving this looming uncertainty and how we lurch from one deadline or crisis to the other. >> they were just acting like maybe they realized it's ludicrous and they're going to continue with the 85. >> yeah. they didn't have the luxury of sitting back and doing nothing. they had to do something. all the fed's best ideas were used up several years ago. each successive step, whether it's quantitative easing or anything else is less effective than the previous. but they don't have the luxury of sitting back and doing nothing. >> andrew. >> i'm getting -- i don't know. even though it's a friday and even though it's bengals -- i don't know, greg. >> america's future, success will muddle through. the absence of total disaster is what our destiny is. we're not going to fix this long-term budget problem. think about it, it's real easy to finance a trillion dollar deficit at low interest rates. so why -- there's no pressure to really solve this
. technology, there's revolution under way right and i think as a result you can make a bet on apple, google, et cetera, but there are reasons why they trade where they trade and so the world of 20 times multiples for large cap tech stocks will challenge as well. and energy, oil is at 100 not 20. >> but another revolution in energy too, right? >> but it's a bit of -- there's a lot of volume. not much profit. the market ultimately you can see why some of the sectors that drag multiple down are where they are. doesn't make it bad. but does it make me think that multiples just bottomed out? not so sure about that. >> yeah, you wonder whether you see multiple expansion in either one of those last two. in health care it's hard to -- it's going to be continuous cost pressure and then energy we just saw, climate change is the biggest thing that he talked about yesterday. i mean i wonder if you worry about hydro carbon build-out now, or whether you believe it or whether you think congress will stop any actions that slow that down. >> the funny thing is, you're talking about airlines and building. th
profits. starwood capital ceo barry sternlicht on where he's placing his bets in this recovery. he's our guest host this morning. >> plus earnings alert. ford and eli lilly ready to report this hour. we have the numbers and the instant analysis as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody, and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we've been watching the futures this morning. you can see a few red arrows. just a modest decline. the dow futures down by about 14 points. s&p futures off by just over 3. let's get to your morning headlines. yahoo! reporting better than expected profit in its first full quarter under ceo marissa mayer. yahoo! earning 32 cents a share, four cents better than estimates. its full-year revenue projection is also above consensus they mayer says there's still much work to be done. congress has passed a $50.5 billion aid bill for victims of superstorm sandy. president obama says that he will sign the measure as soon as it comes to his desk. that senate passed that measure 62
Search Results 0 to 17 of about 18